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New Delhi:
The BJP is projected to win the 2025 Delhi Assembly election by a margin of 6 seats. New data released Thursday evening from Today's Chanakya, Axis My India, and CNX suggests that the BJP will again have power of the national capital for the first time since 1998.
The Axis My India poll forecasts that PM Narendra Modi's party will secure between 45 and 55 of Delhi's 70 seats, while CNX is even more positive, predicting between 49 and 61 seats for the BJP.
In opposite to this, Axis My India predicts the ruling AAP will win between 15 and 25 seats, and CNX estimates 10-19 seats for the party.
Today's Chanakya's projection is for the BJP to win 51 seats, while the AAP is hoping to secure 19.
None of the 3 polls foresee any significant performance from the Congress, with predictions giving it at most 1 seat. This highlights a common theme shared by all of the 12 exit polls — that the Congress continues to struggle in Delhi. The updated poll of exit polls now forecasts the BJP to win 42 of the 70 seats — 6 more than needed to form the government. Arvind Kejriwal's AAP, aiming for an impressive 3rd consecutive win in Delhi, is expected to win only 27 seats — a major drop from the 67 it secured in 2015 and 62 in 2020.
The Congress? Only one seat. If this prediction proves accurate, it would once again elaborate the party's apparent failure to work alongside other opposition parties. Before the Delhi elections, the Congress and the AAP were expected to come together (as they have nationally) to challenge the BJP.
Anyways, that alliance never materialized, reflecting a similar situation in last year’s Haryana elections, where Congress leaders in the state were not willing to consider a deal with the AAP.
The Congress was at last soundly defeated in Haryana as well.
Meanwhile, back to Delhi & the 10 exit polls released last night.
Seven of the 10 polls also predict a powerful showing for the BJP. People's Pulse, Poll Diary, and People's Insights were the most positive, estimating a return of between 40 and 60 seats for the BJP. Moreover, the AAP has strongly rejected the exit poll results, emphasizing further that they were similarly dismissed before their victories in 2015 and 2020.
AAP leader Sushil Gupta told the news agency ANI, "This is our fourth election... every time exit polls did not show AAP (winning, but) Arvind Kejriwal has worked for the people of Delhi. We will see the results in favour of AAP and we will form the government..."