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Guests gathered at a rally hosted by former President Donald Trump near Washington, Michigan, on April 2, 2022. The ultimate decision on who occupies the White House in January 2025 will likely hinge on voters in seven key swing states: Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris.
In many states this November, it will be relatively predictable which presidential candidate will secure the majority of electoral votes.
However, in the seven swing states stretching from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest and back down to the South, the results are far from certain. The 93 electoral votes up for grabs in these states are crucial and will likely determine the final outcome of the presidential race.
This holds true despite a significant shift in the race. Former President Donald Trump, who has been a prominent figure in the GOP since 2016 despite his loss in 2020, officially accepted the Republican nomination again in July, shortly after surviving an assassination attempt. On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden’s unexpected withdrawal from the race in July and his subsequent endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris led to Harris becoming the nominee in August.
Defining a Swing State
A swing state is defined as one that plays a crucial role in the outcome of presidential elections and where both Democratic and Republican candidates have comparable levels of support.
The list of swing states tends to be consistent across election cycles, though shifts in demographics and voter turnout can turn traditionally red or blue states into swing states. For instance, Georgia became a swing state following Biden's surprising win there in 2020 and Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock's election victory in 2022.
Both Harris and Trump are concentrating their campaign efforts on swing states, focusing on them with visits and rallies as the election approaches on November 5.