The Harris Paradox: The Hidden Patterns in US Election Results

Washington:  In many of the states, Democratic Senate candidates outperformed Kamala Harris, despite her loss in the presidential race.  

For example, Dan Osborn in Nebraska and Jon Tester in Montana received vote shares 7 percentage points higher than Harris's but still lost their respective contests. In Arizona, Ruben Gallego's vote share was more than Harris's by 4 points, and he is currently leading. Colin Allred in Texas garnered a 3-point higher vote share than Harris but failed to unseat Ted Cruz. 

Other notable performances include Jacky Rosen in Nevada, who had a 2-point higher vote share, though the race is still too close to call, and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, who won with a vote share barely 1 point above Harris's. Furthermore, Elissa Slotkin in Michigan and Bob Casey in Pennsylvania saw vote shares roughly 1 point more than Harris's on Wednesday morning. 

According to a report by Vox, these results suggest that voters are differentiating between the presidential race and statewide elections, with some Democratic Senate candidates performing much more better than anticipated.  

In U.S. elections, it is often hoped that a popular presidential nominee will help boost statewide races. This trickle-down effect can give the party a lift in other contests. However, the phenomenon of ticket-splitting can sometimes make these plans fail. 

Ticket-splitting occurs when voters choose candidates from different parties for various races in the same election. For example, in 2012, 6 states split their tickets in 8 races, electing Democrats to the governorship and Senate but voting for Republican Mitt Romney for president.  

In 2016, 5 states split their tickets, electing either a Republican or Democratic governor alongside their presidential vote. Ticket-splitting was even less common in 2020, with only 3 states showing this trend.

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