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Tehran:
The downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has disrupted a vital component of Iran's "axis of resistance," but analysis suggests that Tehran will find ways to adjust to the new situation.
After almost 14 years of conflict in Syria, a rapid offensive by an Islamist-led rebel coalition toppled Assad. The offensive started on November 27, coinciding with a ceasefire in the ongoing war between Iran's strong proxy, Hezbollah, and Israel.
Hezbollah had long depended on Syria as a critical route for Iranian weapons and supplies. With Assad now ousted, it remains to be seen how Hezbollah will adapt, especially after suffering big losses in its latest confrontation.
'Frontline of resistance'
Previously, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the ultimate authority over national matters, declared that "Syria is on the frontline of the resistance against Israel." Iran's axis of resistance includes Tehran and many proxy groups gathered by their opposition to Israel, which included Hezbollah from Lebanon, Hamas from Palestine, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and small factions in Iraq.
Until Sunday, Assad's regime was a significant pillar of this alliance, with Iran and Hezbollah providing crucial military support to sustain his rule. The fall of Assad is an important blow to this fragile coalition and a total setback in Iran's battle against Israel.
In previous months, Israel has faced heavy blows to the resistance network, killing Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon, while decimating mid-level leadership in both the groups. Iran also accused Israel of orchestrating the assassination of former Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in a war in Tehran this July.
Furthermore, Iran has suffered considerable losses in Syria, with hundreds of its Revolutionary Guards which were killed over the course of the civil war, including in Israeli airstrikes.
'Destabilisation'
Within the border of Iran, some believe the goal of the Syrian rebel forces was to sever the connection between Tehran and its regional enemies. As Iran's influence in Syria comes to an end, it is expected that Iran will no longer be able to support Hezbollah to the same extent, according to Mehdi Zakerian, an international relations expert in Tehran.
In the official Iranian narrative, the rising against Assad was part of a larger American-Israeli scheme to "destabilize" the Middle East and alter the political landscape.
The war in Syria began as a crackdown on pro-democracy protest which is inspired by the Arab Spring. In reply, Iran had sent what it called "military advisers" to aid Assad's forces, at his request. Shiite militias loyal to Iran also entered by allowing Tehran to expand their influence in Syria, an important country bordered by Lebanon and Israel.
By following Assad's fall on Sunday, the Iranian embassy in Damascus was plundered, an act which was earlier unthinkable.