India's Challenge: Approaches to Engaging with Sheikh Hasina

Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina landed at a military base near Delhi in a hurried departure nearly a month ago after a chaotic exit from her homeland.

Hasina’s abrupt removal on August 5 followed weeks of student-led demonstrations that escalated into deadly, nationwide unrest. Initially expected to remain in India briefly, her efforts to seek asylum in the UK, US, and UAE have reportedly been unsuccessful.

Her ongoing stay in India has posed challenges for Delhi in fostering a strong relationship with Bangladesh’s new interim government.

For India, Bangladesh is more than just a neighboring country; it is a strategic partner and close ally vital for India's border security, especially concerning its northeastern states. The two nations share a lengthy and porous border of 4,096km (2,545 miles), which facilitates the movement of armed insurgent groups from India’s northeast into Bangladesh for refuge.

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Since the Awami League, led by Ms Hasina, assumed power in 2009, it has cracked down on some of these ethnic militant groups and resolved several border disputes with India amicably.

While border security remains central to their relationship, economic factors also play a role. During Hasina’s 15-year tenure, trade and connectivity between the two countries grew significantly.

India has benefited from access to transport goods through Bangladesh to its northeastern states via road, river, and rail. Additionally, since 2010, India has extended over $7 billion (£5.3 billion) in credit to Bangladesh for infrastructure and development projects.

Hasina’s sudden departure means Delhi must ensure these gains are preserved.

Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, a former Indian High Commissioner to Dhaka, notes that while the situation is a setback, Delhi must engage with the interim government in Dhaka as there is no alternative and internal decisions cannot be dictated.

The Indian government has promptly reached out to the interim administration in Dhaka, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi having a phone conversation with leader Muhammad Yunus.

However, it will take time for Delhi to address the dissatisfaction in Bangladesh regarding its steadfast support for Hasina and the Awami League over the past 15 years.

Many in Bangladesh attribute their frustration with India to Delhi's rapid endorsement of three controversial elections won by Hasina’s party amid allegations of vote-rigging.

With Hasina’s downfall, Delhi’s “neighborhood first” policy has faced another setback, with Bangladesh joining the Maldives and Nepal in resisting any attempts at Indian dominance.

Analysts argue that Delhi cannot afford to lose influence in another neighboring country if it wishes to maintain its regional dominance, especially as China competes for influence in the area.

Last year, Mohamed Muizzu won the presidency in the Maldives largely due to his outspoken anti-India stance.

Debapriya Bhattacharya, a senior economist with the Centre for Policy Dialogue in Dhaka, suggests that it is time for India to reflect on its regional policy.

Bhattacharya heads a committee appointed by the interim government to draft a white paper on Bangladesh’s economic state.

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