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Follow UsAccording to the United Nations, 2024 marks “the most significant election year in human history,” with around half of the global population—around 3.7 billion people over 72 countries—eligible to vote. However, some elections carry more weight than others, which is why the upcoming US election is collecting global attention.
As the largest economy and military power in the world, the US is a crucial player in various international unions, the global economic and financial systems, and many liberal organisations worldwide. These elections represent a critical moment in US history, potentially reshaping governance and impacting the future of the post-war order that the US has largely accepted.
For the first time since 1945, fundamental aspects of US foreign relations are at a danger. The choice lies between Donald Trump's Republican Party, which may radically alter the US's role on the global stage, and Kamala Harris's Democratic schedule, which favors a more engaged international posture. Under Harris, the US is expected to maintain a strong role in NATO, for example.
Tariffs on China
One of the most important challenges to traditional US foreign policy is Trump's proposal for a blanket 20% tariff on all foreign imports. Tariffs on China could be even deeper, with Trump threatening rates between 60% and 200%. Such measures could increase costs and harm the US economy while provoking retaliation and trade wars, destabilizing the global economy. By stopping access to the largest national market, these tariffs would also hinder international efforts to achieve a zero-carbon economy.
Commitment to Allies
Another pivotal issue in the 2024 election is the US's commitment to defend allies against aggressive states. As a NATO member, the US is forced to assist fellow members under Article 5 if attacked, and similar agreements exist with Japan and South Korea. The Biden administration has supported Ukraine with military and financial help to resist Russian aggression.
On the other hand, Trump has suggested he would end this support and pressure Ukraine to negotiate with Moscow. Rather than viewing alliances as strengths, he sees them as risks and burdens.
Concerns About Democracy
The importance of these elections extends to the US's ability to conduct free, fair, and uncontested elections and ensure a peaceful transfer of power. Since his first involvement in the 2016 Republican primaries, Trump has never acknowledged the outcomes of elections he has lost.
Remarkably, he has convinced many Republican voters to believe that the 2020 election was fraudulent, with only a third viewing it as legitimate. When trust in the electoral process erodes, it becomes challenging for the US to merge for governance post-election.
The US's democratic experiment has attracted and inspired the world since its founding in 1776. However, it has never appeared more exposed. The nation is deeply divided over severe issues such as taxation, immigration, abortion, trade, energy, environmental policies, and its role in global affairs.